New Poll Shows McCain Leading Among Likely Voters

[Silverback]

New Poll Shows McCain Leading Among Likely Voters

A new USA Today /Gallup national poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain 47%-44% among registered voters. However, when the sample is reduced to only those likely to vote, McCain jumps to a 49%-45% lead. The survey, taken July 25-28, "showed a surge since last month in likely Republican voters and suggested Obama's trip may have helped energize voters who favor McCain." The poll surveyed 900 registered voters and 791 likely voters.

Other Polls Show Obama Up The Gallup daily presidential tracking poll shows Sen. Barack Obama leading Sen. John McCain 48%-40%, down from a 49%-40% lead yesterday. The survey polled 2,674 registered voters from July 25-27. The Rasmussen Report automated daily presidential tracking poll for July 28 shows that while Obama opened a wider lead over the weekend, it closed again in yesterday's survey of 3,000 registered voters. Obama now leads McCain 45%-42%, and 48%-45% if leaners are included. A Democracy Corps (D) poll of 1,004 likely voters taken July 21-24 shows Obama leading McCain 50%-45% in a two-way race or 49%-43% if Bob Barr (L) and Ralph Nader are included.

Trip Not A Plus For Obama? The Gallup poll, along with polls from battleground states and other national polls, are starting to generate commentary in the media on whether or not Obama's foreign swing in fact helped his campaign. Fox News' Special Report reported, "The political effect of Obama's tour of the Middle East and three European capitals...appears to be negligible. ... Late last month McCain trailed Obama among likely voters by six points." Fox News added "the Real Clear Politics average of all recent national polls shows a tight race with Obama leading McCain by just over three points about where he was before his overseas odyssey began." On MSNBC's Hardball, NBC correspondent Andrea Mitchell said the trip was "too much like a tour of a president, when he is -- he had to say, I'm not a president, I'm just a candidate, but that almost seemed a little bit disingenuous because he did seem like a touring head of state." On Fox News' Special Report roundtable, Fred Barnes said, "I think people are recognizing that he's just a regular old pol. He's a liberal one. He's an extremely well-spoken one. He carried off a great trip to Europe that was well staged and he didn't say anything foolish at all. But he spins and quibbles and makes up things and denies things and pretends like he says things that he didn't, and all this stuff that we have seen politicians do so many times."

Full Article

[Silverback]

What's amazing to me is that the same company can release two polls with two different results and the difference is likely and registered voters????

[McD]

That's why statistics are so good. Well for at least 90% of the polls, 50% of the time.

[clk54]

Data are collected for both broad and specific purposes and to detect trends. For example, it has been reported that Senator Obama has wide support from the 18-24 year old registered voters, however, this group is not likely to vote based on data from past elections. Therefore, although Senator Obama leads among registerd voters--perhaps of all ages--, among those registered voters who are likely to vote Senator McCain has the lead.

My son is 24 years old and a strong Obama supporter, however, he does not support the electoral college and has said he will not vote in November. He thinks Obama will win because of the country's disdain for the Bush administration. I told him that if his age group does not show up to vote there is a real chance that Obama will not win. Popularity is one thing but it's the actual vote that counts--even if you don't think much of the present electoral college.

[Silverback]

Data are collected for both broad and specific purposes and to detect trends. For example, it has been reported that Senator Obama has wide support from the 18-24 year old registered voters, however, this group is not likely to vote based on data from past elections. Therefore, although Senator Obama leads among registerd voters--perhaps of all ages--, among those registered voters who are likely to vote Senator McCain has the lead.

My son is 24 years old and a strong Obama supporter, however, he does not support the electoral college and has said he will not vote in November. He thinks Obama will win because of the country's disdain for the Bush administration. I told him that if his age group does not show up to vote there is a real chance that Obama will not win. Popularity is one thing but it's the actual vote that counts--even if you don't think much of the present electoral college.

So..."Likely voters" are registered voters who are "likely" to vote and registered voters are voters who are able to vote but the "likelihood" of them voting is determined by factors other than being registered.

Have you ever heard of a "Rhetorical question"? (This is one also)

[clk54]

Yes, Ranger Silverback, I have heard of a rhetorical question ("r" in rhetorical is not capitalized unless it is at the beginning of a sentence or in a title). The question just seemed to beg an answer which you summarized nicely in your last post.

[Rock Island Ranger]

Polls are flawed by their very nature. 1000 people? Please. Demographic differences, pockets of blue, red....none of it means shit until the votes are counted. And until they are,....we wont have a new President.

[RTO]

Even counting votes is difficult at times. Remember hanging chads? :?

[Silverback]

Yes, Ranger Silverback, I have heard of a rhetorical question ("r" in rhetorical is not capitalized unless it is at the beginning of a sentence or in a title). The question just seemed to beg an answer which you summarized nicely in your last post.

Ok then...thanks for the English lesson