Axis of Evil Op-ed

[Chiron]

What about axis of evil?

Op-ed: After turning his back on ally Mubarak, will President Obama confront Iran?

There are those that compare the fall of Hosni Mubarak to the fall of the Berlin Wall. The Wall’s fall cascaded to communism’s crumble in Eastern Europe, but will the end of Mubarak’s rule in Egypt lead to the end of autocracy and perhaps theocracy in the Middle East? Wishful thinking, but no one really knows.


Full story

[Jim]

The Egyptian military and security forces did not have the stomach to put the demonstrations down with force. The regime in Iran has demonstrated that they do; as they have in the past.

[Lefty]

So, would Iran be ala' Hungary 1956 - snuffed out by overwhelming force?

[Jim]

Interesting analysis on the Egyoptian distance between enthusiasm and reality from STRATFOR:

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110213 ... 323853f9a8" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Chiron]

Interesting analysis on the Egyoptian distance between enthusiasm and reality from STRATFOR:

http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/20110213 ... 323853f9a8" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

STRATFOR is in line with what’s going on I believe. Egypt and Turkey or at least the Turkey that was run by the generals a few years ago are similar in that Turkey has put the generals out of politics and Egypt is heading that route. Currently Turkey has thrown the military out of running the country and the people voted in the Islamic government.

I wonder if what happened in Turkey with the election of Erdogan who slowly but methodically ousted the military, and brought in the Islamic vote (his wife always dressed with the chador), could happen in Egypt.

I’m not thinking anymore about the possibility of a war now or in the near future. Remember it took one incident with Israel to make Turkey no longer an ally of Israel. So my prognosis is that Egypt would eventually oust the generals like Turkey, which would take a few years, provided there would be a charismatic leader to bring everyone outside the military together.

The issue is what happens after that. Like the article points out it is very difficult to predict. However, I’ll take the Turkish example because I understand Turkish policy and politics. The Turks will play a leading role in the Middle East whether we like it or not.

I hope you don’t mind I pass the link to a few friends…

[MarineRanger]

Yes, it appears that the stepping down of Mubarak was "a wonderful show". But the truth is, the military shut down any revolution without firing a shot, and they "remain" in power.

Looking at the bigger picture ...

The rebirth of Israel is the foot recently jammed in the door, a small toehold on freedom.

When we look at the Ottoman empire, the strategic importance of Israel, becomes stark.

The map is too large ... here's a link to the image ...


http://www.allaboutturkey.com/img/ottom ... e-1580.gif" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Chiron]

When I went to Dubai last year I saw the following which was interesting.

Every supermarket shelf in every supermarket was 80% (my take) Turkish products. What makes this interesting is that the Turks are not Arabs. I know that they export to Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kazakhstan. But since last year found that they do a huge amount to the Arab countries. They played the Islamic card well. Add to that the fact that they no longer have a valid treaty with Israel and they became a prime example for the Arabs. At least those that have a struggling economy.

Their goal is to create the Ottoman Empire again but that will never happen save for becoming an economic power within Islam. They are on the rise.

That’s why I started talking about them in this thread. They will ultimately have a say in the Arab world. They will set the example which will be in favor of the Islamic states.

Yes watch Egypt now but check the diplomatic ties with Turkey and watch their move.

[MarineRanger]

They played the Islamic card well. Add to that the fact that they no longer have a valid treaty with Israel and they became a prime example for the Arabs.

Turkey was looking pretty durn good until those boat incidences. Their response shocked me. Looks like they're back in play.

Now I got another country that I need to research more ... sheeesh.