Graduate School Paper- Predicting RASP Success

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IntelToad
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Graduate School Paper- Predicting RASP Success

Post by IntelToad »

This is an interesting paper written by Major Anthony D. Smith, U.S. Army for his Master's Thesis at the U.S. Navy Postgraduate College.

It's some pretty heavy mathematics (I have a Master's Degree in Finance and I thought my head would explode) but there are some interesting nuggets of information in it that you might find useful.

Page 15, for instance, is interesting because it breaks down how many candidates by MOS attempted RASP in 2015 and 2016.

I'm going to give it another read or two and see what else I can find. It would be interesting to get in touch with Major Smith and ask him about his research and findings.

https://calhoun.nps.edu/bitstream/handl ... sequence=1
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Re: Graduate School Paper- Predicting RASP Success

Post by Jim »

Looks interesting. But, this is going to require reading several times.
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Re: Graduate School Paper- Predicting RASP Success

Post by centermass »

Geezus.... I got as far as the Model Development and lost consciousness.

Simple solution - RASP success predictor? Hard fuckin work and dedication.
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Re: Graduate School Paper- Predicting RASP Success

Post by KW Driver »

heart. stubbornness. all intangibles to me.

if he can math a good solution, he'll get rich with someone for the predictive skills if he can sell it.
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Re: Graduate School Paper- Predicting RASP Success

Post by FORRTrES »

Some obvious observations from a quick read through...

11-Series Graduate at a higher rate than other MOS'
It would appear that 11 series guys graduate at a much higher rate than other MOS'. But that seems problematic as there are a lot of MOS' on the table on page 19 that have less than 25 observations and the writer seems to average it out which isn't as reliable of a statistic(with asterisks).

But even from the non-11-series MOS' with a reasonable sample size, they seem to graduate at about 2/3 the rate of 11-series. HOwever this is still an issue imo due to the sheer size of the 11-series, making up 65% of the observations!


Rank seems to be the most obvious predictor
On page 20, there is a graph that lists grad rates by rank and MOS, that have at least 50 observations. It seems in general, there is a strong trend up that suggests that the higher the rank(E4/E5), the more likely that soldier is to graduate RASP. This is a general trend across all MOS'.

Interestingly, 68-series(medics) seem to be ALMOST AS LIKELY to graduate as 11-series by the rank of E-4, and being JUST AS LIKELY to graduate by the rank of E-5.

It also appears that 92-series have a sharp increase in graduation rates as rank increases.


Soldiers who are recylced are LESS LIKELY to graduate than the first go-round
This one seems rather obvious. But the soldiers that recylce, are less likely to graduate than first time soldiers.

I think in this case, they just wind up with a pool of guys who may not be able to make it through RASP for whatever reason(motivation, injured, etc), so it would seem logical that they are less likely to graduate.

The author makes the case that it may be better to be selective with who they allow to recycle, and that it might be more cost effective to give that spot to a new candidate.

The author even says, "The data shows there is no advantage to recycle."


GT Score seems to also be a reliable predictor
In general, the higher the GT score, the more likely a candidate is to graduate. The means of failures vs grads is close... but the cluster of higher scores tends to be in the higher GT range.


Summary and Other take-aways
  • More candidates fail in the first phase of RASP than the second (60% vs 40%).
  • People from southern states are less likely to graduate RASP(wtf?!?!).
  • Rank is the biggest predictor. E4/E5 are far and away much more likely to graduate
  • People below the age of 20 are less likely to graduate
  • People who recycle are less likely to graduate.
  • People that show up with POVs are more likely to graduate, although the author suggests this is correlated to other things(age, rank, prior servce)

The author also says there is no shortage of infantry slots. It seems to be hard to fill non-infantry slots, and suggests offering 11Bs the option to re-class once completing RASP might be an effective way to fill alternate MOS'.

All of these observations seem logical. I would imagine most of the Rangers on this forum would have at least anecdotally had similar deductions about who graduates and who doesn't?

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Re: Graduate School Paper- Predicting RASP Success

Post by IntelToad »

You are an inconsequential fuck at this point.
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Re: Graduate School Paper- Predicting RASP Success

Post by KW Driver »

dudes don't fight for an 11 series OPT 40, or pathway to Regt, graduate RASP, and say to themselves, "hey, maybe I'll go be a supply guy/mechanic/admin/comms dude now that I've made it to now I have my foot in the door."

they also don't reclass to stay within the Regt on a re-up, or med disqual (I assume). All Rangers have to maintain the same standards. period.

If, IF they reclass, it's usually leaving the Regt like I did when I went to flight school trying to save a marriage.

the dudes who make it through RASP are the dudes that want to be there and will do anything to stay, and not fail. it's fucking intangible. the studs drop. the mousy little dude gets hard. after RASP is when the real test starts.
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200 meters of green shit next to a river in the desert does not qualify as a "Crescent of Fertility" -me

"The meek shall inherit the earth, one meter wide and two meters long" -Lazarus Long

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